Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-09

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-28) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-28 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-28)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-28) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 766 (694 – 846) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (18 – 71)
Algeria 120 (96 – 137) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -22 (210 – -10)
Andorra 20 (10 – 30) Increasing 2.1 (1.3 – 2.9) 3.1 (1.9 – 8.1)
Argentina 878 (773 – 969) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (15 – 38)
Armenia 511 (435 – 570) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (12 – 35)
Australia 15 (6 – 22) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 26 (4.9 – -7.7)
Austria 32 (22 – 42) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 60 (8.5 – -12)
Azerbaijan 288 (255 – 315) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (9.8 – 32)
Bahrain 520 (462 – 580) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 11 (8.7 – 17)
Bangladesh 2696 (2478 – 2924) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 15 (13 – 19)
Belarus 917 (834 – 1003) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 130 (37 – -83)
Belgium 135 (112 – 156) Decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -17 (-100 – -9.7)
Benin 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -31 (5.3 – -3.9)
Bolivia 589 (527 – 647) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (17 – 87)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 22 (12 – 30) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 17 (5.3 – -14)
Brazil 23547 (22243 – 25060) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 31 (24 – 44)
Bulgaria 32 (19 – 42) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 7.8 (4.1 – 100)
Cameroon 284 (249 – 312) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (8.8 – 32)
Canada 745 (681 – 816) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -32 (-110 – -19)
Central African Republic 92 (77 – 111) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (7.5 – 100)
Chad 16 (7 – 23) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -41 (8 – -5.8)
Chile 4846 (4479 – 5180) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 36 (27 – 53)
China 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 15 (3.8 – -7.2)
Colombia 1494 (1351 – 1621) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (15 – 27)
Cote dIvoire 113 (92 – 132) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (7.3 – 43)
Croatia 6 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.7 (0.1 – 3.3) 4 (1.2 – -2.7)
Cuba 22 (13 – 31) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 16 (5.3 – -16)
Czechia 51 (36 – 63) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 220 (12 – -13)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 131 (110 – 150) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 75 (16 – -28)
Denmark 46 (33 – 58) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 160 (11 – -13)
Djibouti 142 (117 – 167) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 430 (19 – -20)
Dominican Republic 354 (308 – 393) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 150 (27 – -43)
Ecuador 555 (478 – 626) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (10 – 34)
Egypt 1364 (1243 – 1464) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (13 – 25)
El Salvador 74 (57 – 88) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -49 (25 – -12)
Equatorial Guinea 47 (33 – 60) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) -110 (11 – -9.1)
Estonia 12 (5 – 18) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 10 (3.5 – -11)
Ethiopia 127 (105 – 146) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (8.3 – 70)
Finland 24 (14 – 32) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -14 (26 – -5.5)
France 591 (525 – 649) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -35 (50 – -13)
Gabon 83 (65 – 96) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -23 (75 – -9.9)
Germany 395 (349 – 440) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -84 (60 – -24)
Ghana 243 (213 – 268) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (11 – 54)
Greece 8 (1 – 12) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 20 (3.5 – -5.3)
Guatemala 283 (252 – 311) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 44 (17 – -82)
Guinea 62 (47 – 76) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -35 (26 – -11)
Guinea Bissau 20 (11 – 27) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 480 (7.9 – -8.1)
Haiti 172 (146 – 194) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 37 (14 – -51)
Honduras 156 (133 – 179) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -32 (74 – -13)
Hungary 20 (12 – 28) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -280 (8.2 – -7.5)
Iceland 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.4 (0.2 – 4.3) 1.8 (0.98 – -4)
India 9601 (8882 – 10446) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (16 – 22)
Indonesia 707 (623 – 779) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (18 – 110)
Iran 3037 (2811 – 3283) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (15 – 23)
Iraq 720 (611 – 834) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.6) 6.9 (5.8 – 8.5)
Ireland 38 (28 – 50) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -20 (29 – -7.4)
Israel 112 (89 – 132) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 7.8 (5.2 – 15)
Italy 342 (302 – 380) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -22 (-61 – -13)
Japan 47 (36 – 61) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 26 (8.3 – -22)
Kazakhstan 291 (256 – 320) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -42 (120 – -18)
Kenya 109 (92 – 129) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 45 (13 – -31)
Kosovo 15 (7 – 22) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) 8.7 (3.5 – -16)
Kuwait 772 (709 – 831) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) 580 (47 – -55)
Kyrgyzstan 38 (25 – 48) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -24 (24 – -8)
Latvia 6 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 1.9) 14 (2.7 – -4.2)
Lebanon 23 (11 – 32) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 18 (5.2 – -12)
Lithuania 7 (2 – 12) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.6) -270 (4.3 – -4.3)
Luxembourg 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 1.9) 17 (2.9 – -4.3)
Madagascar 43 (31 – 54) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 66 (10 – -14)
Malawi 28 (17 – 37) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 33 (6.9 – -12)
Malaysia 84 (61 – 102) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 66 (11 – -15)
Maldives 35 (21 – 45) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -17 (32 – -6.6)
Mali 42 (30 – 54) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 34 (8.5 – -16)
Mauritania 72 (55 – 88) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 11 (6.1 – 54)
Mexico 3887 (3540 – 4239) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 24 (19 – 35)
Moldova 208 (183 – 233) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (13 – 5200)
Mongolia 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.7) -32 (3.7 – -3)
Morocco 56 (42 – 69) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 78 (11 – -15)
Nepal 243 (212 – 267) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 9 (6.4 – 16)
Netherlands 162 (139 – 191) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -6400 (22 – -22)
New Zealand 6 (0 – 12) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.4 – 3.3) 3.9 (1.4 – -4.6)
Niger 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.2) 9 (2 – -3.5)
Nigeria 372 (332 – 413) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (15 – 180)
North Macedonia 107 (86 – 125) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.1 (4.8 – 13)
Norway 17 (8 – 24) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 49 (5.9 – -7.5)
Oman 814 (741 – 889) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 11 (8.7 – 16)
Pakistan 4311 (3932 – 4774) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.6 (8.3 – 11)
Palestine 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.8) 16 (2.9 – -4.6)
Panama 453 (399 – 502) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (12 – 36)
Paraguay 29 (14 – 41) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 12 (4.7 – -26)
Peru 5498 (5243 – 5769) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 130 (45 – -150)
Philippines 622 (569 – 678) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 19 (12 – 48)
Poland 374 (325 – 425) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 78 (22 – -48)
Portugal 324 (274 – 359) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 21 (12 – 62)
Puerto Rico 178 (151 – 202) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 9.6 (6.6 – 18)
Qatar 1854 (1725 – 2001) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 83 (40 – -1000)
Romania 178 (152 – 211) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 84 (18 – -31)
Russia 9284 (8674 – 9911) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 59 (40 – 110)
Saudi Arabia 2271 (2041 – 2514) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (18 – 120)
Senegal 103 (83 – 120) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 30 (11 – -45)
Serbia 55 (39 – 68) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 23 (7.7 – -23)
Sierra Leone 17 (8 – 24) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -12 (17 – -4.5)
Singapore 483 (427 – 524) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 110 (29 – -58)
Slovakia 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.5) 10 (1.9 – -3)
Somalia 55 (41 – 67) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 33 (9.2 – -22)
South Africa 2237 (2008 – 2479) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (10 – 14)
South Korea 46 (31 – 57) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 33 (8.8 – -19)
South Sudan 65 (50 – 81) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) -80 (16 – -11)
Spain 370 (328 – 407) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -14 (-25 – -10)
Sri Lanka 36 (23 – 48) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -9 (-51 – -4.9)
Sudan 157 (131 – 175) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -53 (42 – -16)
Sweden 1025 (886 – 1137) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8.3 – 13)
Switzerland 19 (10 – 26) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 34 (6.3 – -9.6)
Tajikistan 107 (85 – 125) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -15 (-73 – -8.4)
Thailand 8 (2 – 13) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 19 (3.5 – -5.4)
Tunisia 8 (1 – 14) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.4) 5.7 (2.2 – -9.4)
Turkey 944 (866 – 1031) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -140 (85 – -39)
Uganda 30 (18 – 38) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 120 (9.3 – -11)
Ukraine 482 (427 – 524) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (16 – 110)
United Arab Emirates 663 (599 – 721) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -80 (89 – -28)
United Kingdom 1812 (1672 – 1944) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -29 (-67 – -19)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (4 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.4 (30 – -3.7)
United States of America 22819 (21363 – 24445) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 45 (36 – 61)
Uzbekistan 88 (70 – 103) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (9.3 – -79)
Venezuela 122 (101 – 139) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (7.2 – 42)
Zambia 15 (7 – 21) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.5 – 1.1) -14 (13 – -4.7)
Zimbabwe 19 (10 – 26) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 77 (6.7 – -8.2)