Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-09

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-28) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-28 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-28 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-28)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-28) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	766 (694 – 846)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	28 (18 – 71)
Algeria	120 (96 – 137)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-22 (210 – -10)
Andorra	20 (10 – 30)	Increasing	2.1 (1.3 – 2.9)	3.1 (1.9 – 8.1)
Argentina	878 (773 – 969)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	21 (15 – 38)
Armenia	511 (435 – 570)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (12 – 35)
Australia	15 (6 – 22)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	26 (4.9 – -7.7)
Austria	32 (22 – 42)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	60 (8.5 – -12)
Azerbaijan	288 (255 – 315)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (9.8 – 32)
Bahrain	520 (462 – 580)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	11 (8.7 – 17)
Bangladesh	2696 (2478 – 2924)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	15 (13 – 19)
Belarus	917 (834 – 1003)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	130 (37 – -83)
Belgium	135 (112 – 156)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-17 (-100 – -9.7)
Benin	9 (3 – 14)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.5)	-31 (5.3 – -3.9)
Bolivia	589 (527 – 647)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	28 (17 – 87)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	22 (12 – 30)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.5)	17 (5.3 – -14)
Brazil	23547 (22243 – 25060)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	31 (24 – 44)
Bulgaria	32 (19 – 42)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.7)	7.8 (4.1 – 100)
Cameroon	284 (249 – 312)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (8.8 – 32)
Canada	745 (681 – 816)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-32 (-110 – -19)
Central African Republic	92 (77 – 111)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	14 (7.5 – 100)
Chad	16 (7 – 23)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.3)	-41 (8 – -5.8)
Chile	4846 (4479 – 5180)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	36 (27 – 53)
China	9 (3 – 14)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.8)	15 (3.8 – -7.2)
Colombia	1494 (1351 – 1621)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	19 (15 – 27)
Cote dIvoire	113 (92 – 132)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	13 (7.3 – 43)
Croatia	6 (0 – 15)	Unsure	1.7 (0.1 – 3.3)	4 (1.2 – -2.7)
Cuba	22 (13 – 31)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	16 (5.3 – -16)
Czechia	51 (36 – 63)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	220 (12 – -13)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	131 (110 – 150)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	75 (16 – -28)
Denmark	46 (33 – 58)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	160 (11 – -13)
Djibouti	142 (117 – 167)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	430 (19 – -20)
Dominican Republic	354 (308 – 393)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	150 (27 – -43)
Ecuador	555 (478 – 626)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (10 – 34)
Egypt	1364 (1243 – 1464)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (13 – 25)
El Salvador	74 (57 – 88)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-49 (25 – -12)
Equatorial Guinea	47 (33 – 60)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	-110 (11 – -9.1)
Estonia	12 (5 – 18)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	10 (3.5 – -11)
Ethiopia	127 (105 – 146)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	15 (8.3 – 70)
Finland	24 (14 – 32)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1.1)	-14 (26 – -5.5)
France	591 (525 – 649)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-35 (50 – -13)
Gabon	83 (65 – 96)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-23 (75 – -9.9)
Germany	395 (349 – 440)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-84 (60 – -24)
Ghana	243 (213 – 268)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (11 – 54)
Greece	8 (1 – 12)	Unsure	1.2 (0.6 – 1.8)	20 (3.5 – -5.3)
Guatemala	283 (252 – 311)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	44 (17 – -82)
Guinea	62 (47 – 76)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-35 (26 – -11)
Guinea Bissau	20 (11 – 27)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	480 (7.9 – -8.1)
Haiti	172 (146 – 194)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	37 (14 – -51)
Honduras	156 (133 – 179)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-32 (74 – -13)
Hungary	20 (12 – 28)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-280 (8.2 – -7.5)
Iceland	6 (0 – 15)	Likely increasing	2.4 (0.2 – 4.3)	1.8 (0.98 – -4)
India	9601 (8882 – 10446)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	19 (16 – 22)
Indonesia	707 (623 – 779)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (18 – 110)
Iran	3037 (2811 – 3283)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (15 – 23)
Iraq	720 (611 – 834)	Increasing	1.4 (1.3 – 1.6)	6.9 (5.8 – 8.5)
Ireland	38 (28 – 50)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-20 (29 – -7.4)
Israel	112 (89 – 132)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.6)	7.8 (5.2 – 15)
Italy	342 (302 – 380)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 0.9)	-22 (-61 – -13)
Japan	47 (36 – 61)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	26 (8.3 – -22)
Kazakhstan	291 (256 – 320)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-42 (120 – -18)
Kenya	109 (92 – 129)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	45 (13 – -31)
Kosovo	15 (7 – 22)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.9)	8.7 (3.5 – -16)
Kuwait	772 (709 – 831)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	580 (47 – -55)
Kyrgyzstan	38 (25 – 48)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-24 (24 – -8)
Latvia	6 (1 – 11)	Unsure	1.2 (0.4 – 1.9)	14 (2.7 – -4.2)
Lebanon	23 (11 – 32)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.5)	18 (5.2 – -12)
Lithuania	7 (2 – 12)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.6)	-270 (4.3 – -4.3)
Luxembourg	6 (1 – 10)	Unsure	1.2 (0.4 – 1.9)	17 (2.9 – -4.3)
Madagascar	43 (31 – 54)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	66 (10 – -14)
Malawi	28 (17 – 37)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.5)	33 (6.9 – -12)
Malaysia	84 (61 – 102)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	66 (11 – -15)
Maldives	35 (21 – 45)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-17 (32 – -6.6)
Mali	42 (30 – 54)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	34 (8.5 – -16)
Mauritania	72 (55 – 88)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.5)	11 (6.1 – 54)
Mexico	3887 (3540 – 4239)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	24 (19 – 35)
Moldova	208 (183 – 233)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	26 (13 – 5200)
Mongolia	5 (0 – 10)	Unsure	1.1 (0.4 – 1.7)	-32 (3.7 – -3)
Morocco	56 (42 – 69)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	78 (11 – -15)
Nepal	243 (212 – 267)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	9 (6.4 – 16)
Netherlands	162 (139 – 191)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-6400 (22 – -22)
New Zealand	6 (0 – 12)	Likely increasing	1.9 (0.4 – 3.3)	3.9 (1.4 – -4.6)
Niger	4 (0 – 8)	Unsure	1.3 (0.3 – 2.2)	9 (2 – -3.5)
Nigeria	372 (332 – 413)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	28 (15 – 180)
North Macedonia	107 (86 – 125)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.6)	7.1 (4.8 – 13)
Norway	17 (8 – 24)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	49 (5.9 – -7.5)
Oman	814 (741 – 889)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	11 (8.7 – 16)
Pakistan	4311 (3932 – 4774)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	9.6 (8.3 – 11)
Palestine	5 (1 – 9)	Unsure	1.2 (0.5 – 1.8)	16 (2.9 – -4.6)
Panama	453 (399 – 502)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (12 – 36)
Paraguay	29 (14 – 41)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.6)	12 (4.7 – -26)
Peru	5498 (5243 – 5769)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	130 (45 – -150)
Philippines	622 (569 – 678)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	19 (12 – 48)
Poland	374 (325 – 425)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	78 (22 – -48)
Portugal	324 (274 – 359)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	21 (12 – 62)
Puerto Rico	178 (151 – 202)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	9.6 (6.6 – 18)
Qatar	1854 (1725 – 2001)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	83 (40 – -1000)
Romania	178 (152 – 211)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	84 (18 – -31)
Russia	9284 (8674 – 9911)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	59 (40 – 110)
Saudi Arabia	2271 (2041 – 2514)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	32 (18 – 120)
Senegal	103 (83 – 120)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	30 (11 – -45)
Serbia	55 (39 – 68)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	23 (7.7 – -23)
Sierra Leone	17 (8 – 24)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1.1)	-12 (17 – -4.5)
Singapore	483 (427 – 524)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	110 (29 – -58)
Slovakia	5 (0 – 9)	Unsure	1.4 (0.3 – 2.5)	10 (1.9 – -3)
Somalia	55 (41 – 67)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	33 (9.2 – -22)
South Africa	2237 (2008 – 2479)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (10 – 14)
South Korea	46 (31 – 57)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	33 (8.8 – -19)
South Sudan	65 (50 – 81)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	-80 (16 – -11)
Spain	370 (328 – 407)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.9)	-14 (-25 – -10)
Sri Lanka	36 (23 – 48)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-9 (-51 – -4.9)
Sudan	157 (131 – 175)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-53 (42 – -16)
Sweden	1025 (886 – 1137)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (8.3 – 13)
Switzerland	19 (10 – 26)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	34 (6.3 – -9.6)
Tajikistan	107 (85 – 125)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-15 (-73 – -8.4)
Thailand	8 (2 – 13)	Unsure	1.2 (0.6 – 1.8)	19 (3.5 – -5.4)
Tunisia	8 (1 – 14)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.7 – 2.4)	5.7 (2.2 – -9.4)
Turkey	944 (866 – 1031)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-140 (85 – -39)
Uganda	30 (18 – 38)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	120 (9.3 – -11)
Ukraine	482 (427 – 524)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	27 (16 – 110)
United Arab Emirates	663 (599 – 721)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-80 (89 – -28)
United Kingdom	1812 (1672 – 1944)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-29 (-67 – -19)
United Republic of Tanzania	10 (4 – 15)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1)	-8.4 (30 – -3.7)
United States of America	22819 (21363 – 24445)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	45 (36 – 61)
Uzbekistan	88 (70 – 103)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	21 (9.3 – -79)
Venezuela	122 (101 – 139)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (7.2 – 42)
Zambia	15 (7 – 21)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.5 – 1.1)	-14 (13 – -4.7)
Zimbabwe	19 (10 – 26)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	77 (6.7 – -8.2)